Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: G7 4478 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day G7 4478 ORF 05:58 → EWR 07:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4575 ORF 17:49 → EWR 19:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4478 GoJet	ORF 05:58	EWR 07:27	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
G7 4427 GoJet	ORF 10:53	EWR 12:44	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 4575 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORF 17:49	EWR 19:43	18%	5%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON