tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4023 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record ORF 15:00 IAD 16:09 14% 8% 1.6% 86%
UA 4810 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record ORF 19:59 IAD 21:13 21% 10% 5.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 01m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 22m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 30m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 04m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 55m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 18m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 18:58 → ATL 20:55DL 1346 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 5h 43m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORF 14:41 → CLT 16:07AA 1211 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 17:46 → IAD 19:01AA 1954 4h 20m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 19:15 → CLT 20:41AA 2519 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 22:26 → IAD 23:44AA 2608 4h 29m 94% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON