Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 15:31, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 6331 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ORF 05:56	IAH 08:20	6%	5%	0.8%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:19 → IAH 13:29DL 2709	6h 29m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:36 → IAH 15:40DL 1223	6h 24m	100%	85%
American Details →	ORF 05:29 → CLT 06:56AA 3130	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 08:27 → IAH 10:15AA 2445	5h 46m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:25 → IAH 19:28DL 2327	6h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ORF 18:58 → ATL 20:55DL 1346	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 59m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:59 → MSP 09:21DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	7h 15m	93%	82%
American Details →	ORF 10:09 → CLT 11:32AA 2072	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:32 → IAH 15:12AA 2088	6h 03m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON