Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5651 ORF 06:03 → LGA 07:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4621 ORF 11:12 → LGA 12:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5651 Republic	ORF 06:03	LGA 07:31	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4777 Republic	ORF 06:03	LGA 07:31	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4693 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 06:00	LGA 07:29	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 4358 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 14:36	LGA 16:11	12%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 4621 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:12	LGA 12:40	13%	3%	0.6%	68%
DL 5334 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 06:04	LGA 07:30	17%	8%	4.9%	83%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 10:20	LGA 11:55	25%	16%	7.0%	75%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 14:44	LGA 16:21	39%	19%	17.8%	61%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:21	LGA 20:56	63%	24%	19.2%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON