tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4806 Southwest ORF 08:03 MDW 09:13 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4809 Southwest ORF 18:04 MDW 19:15 13% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 36m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 59m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063 5h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 16:55 → ATL 18:46DL 1101 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 20m 97% 83%
FrontierDetails → ORF 12:10 → ATL 14:08F9 3071 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:02 → MDW 18:20F9 2779 7h 10m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 55m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 4h 09m 93% 69%
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor 3h 24m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 6h 52m 94% 54%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 6h 47m 92% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON