Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 756 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day


AA 756 American Flight history →	ORF 06:00	MIA 08:24	9%	4%	0.3%	90%
MQ 4310 Envoy	ORF 19:22	MIA 21:53	28%	9%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 23m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 42m	98%	88%
American Details →	ORF 06:05 → CLT 07:31AA 2717	3h 31m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	7h 06m	100%	87%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	2h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 09:55 → MIA 13:01AA 1985	6h 38m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 18:17 → ATL 20:22DL 2329	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:59 → JFK 08:18DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m New York	JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514	7h 23m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → LGA 07:40DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 24m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 14:41 → CLT 16:07AA 1211	46m Charlotte	CLT 16:53 → MIA 19:04AA 400	4h 23m	74%	44%
American Details →	ORF 14:36 → LGA 16:10AA 4358 · flown by Republic	50m New York	LGA 17:00 → MIA 19:55AA 3135	5h 19m	74%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON