Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5464 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ORF 06:59	MSP 09:21	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
9E 4951 Endeavor	ORF 07:16	MSP 09:22	7%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORF 06:03 → CLT 07:28AA 2717	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 08:46 → MSP 10:38AA 2972	5h 35m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	7h 15m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 49m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:58 → JFK 08:16DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 19m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 52m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 50m	98%	87%
American Details →	ORF 05:29 → CLT 06:56AA 3130	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 08:33 → MSP 10:20AA 1737	5h 51m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 18:58 → ATL 20:55DL 1346	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	6h 41m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON