Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3668 ORF 06:22 → ORD 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1251 ORF 17:54 → ORD 19:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3668 Republic	ORF 06:22	ORD 07:47	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4528 Republic	ORF 07:00	ORD 08:25	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4448 Republic	ORF 12:02	ORD 13:26	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3674 Republic	ORF 12:46	ORD 14:15	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 18:46	ORD 20:32	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1251 United	ORF 17:54	ORD 19:08	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON