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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861 8h 40m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 8h 17m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → MIA 08:24AA 756 2h 30m Miami MIA 10:54 → SJU 13:49AA 1976 7h 49m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:05 → CLT 07:31AA 2717 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 45m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:29 → CLT 06:56AA 3130 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 08:25 → SJU 12:17AA 3187 6h 48m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORF 05:57 → IAH 08:22UA 6331 · flown by Mesa 1h 41m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 45m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 53m Philadelphia PHL 09:33 → SJU 13:41AA 614 7h 18m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:05 → CLT 07:31AA 2717 54m Charlotte CLT 08:25 → SJU 12:17AA 3187 6h 12m 54% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON