Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1051 MCO 17:13 → LAX 19:27 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	5%	2%	1.3%	95%
AA 1928 American Flight history →	MCO 07:12	LAX 09:25	8%	2%	0.9%	87%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	8%	2%	1.3%	92%
UA 325 United	MCO 09:05	LAX 11:37	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:30	LAX 17:57	15%	6%	2.1%	80%
WN 3638 Southwest	MCO 15:23	LAX 17:39	20%	7%	1.3%	no record
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:13	LAX 19:27	25%	14%	2.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 23m	98%	89%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 18m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON