Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


AS 2437 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PAE 08:00	SAN 10:53	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m San Francisco	SFO 17:07 → SAN 18:40AS 1326	7h 35m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 21m Portland	PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312	4h 56m	94%	72%
Alaska Details →	PAE 07:05 → LAS 09:11AS 380	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 11:11 → SAN 12:29AS 2416 · flown by Horizon	5h 24m	93%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON