Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1455 PDX 17:59 → ANC 20:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 775 PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1455 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:59	ANC 20:50	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 315 Alaska	PDX 15:01	ANC 18:00	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1406 Alaska	PDX 14:30	ANC 17:24	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 775 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	ANC 13:22	16%	2%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON