Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	15%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 25m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 52m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	9h 38m	99%	89%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:43 → BNA 13:22UA 355	6h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	6h 41m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317	7h 50m	99%	87%
United Details →	PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:37UA 780	1h 03m Houston	IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174	7h 38m	93%	85%
American Details →	PDX 05:50 → ORD 11:48AA 3329	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 13:25 → BNA 14:58AA 2991	7h 08m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON