Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3407 PDX 07:04 → BOI 09:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 329 PDX 10:42 → BOI 13:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3407 SkyWest	PDX 07:04	BOI 09:33	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3403 SkyWest	PDX 07:01	BOI 09:18	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 447 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 21:33	BOI 23:42	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 797 Alaska	PDX 11:00	BOI 13:09	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 342 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:58	BOI 17:16	11%	2%	0.5%	87%
AS 2104 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 17:35	BOI 19:53	12%	4%	1.3%	71%
AS 329 Alaska	PDX 10:42	BOI 13:04	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON