tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3120 Southwest PDX 00:12 BWI 08:03 4% 1% 0.5% no record
AS 374 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:12 BWI 15:16 8% 2% 0.6% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 42m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357 7h 09m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 15m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 9h 06m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 38m Denver DEN 14:02 → BWI 19:34UA 363 7h 44m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 1h 16m Chicago ORD 14:29 → BWI 17:33UA 2737 7h 33m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 3h 23m Houston IAH 16:53 → BWI 21:11UA 592 10h 58m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON