Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 10 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:54	DCA 16:00	11%	2%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 27m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 50m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	9h 09m	100%	89%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	1h 19m San Francisco	SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678	8h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	7h 11m	97%	87%
United Details →	PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:38UA 780	59m Houston	IAH 07:37 → DCA 11:51UA 512	8h 42m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	9h 15m	99%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	59m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON