Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 982 PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2496 PDX 14:02 → DFW 19:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 05:07	DFW 10:57	6%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 06:52	DFW 12:35	6%	4%	0.8%	85%
AS 376 Alaska	PDX 07:24	DFW 13:04	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1132 American	PDX 07:48	DFW 13:33	9%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 392 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	DFW 16:42	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 11:59	DFW 17:38	15%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:02	DFW 19:53	15%	5%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON