Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 294 PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1701 PDX 10:51 → EWR 19:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 294 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:40	EWR 16:05	8%	2%	0.8%	83%
UA 1802 United Flight history →	PDX 22:52	EWR 07:06	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1701 United	PDX 10:51	EWR 19:21	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 16m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 11m	96%	88%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 17m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505	7h 45m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON