tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2016 United Flight history → PDX 08:18 IAD 16:40 6% 2% 0.5% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 9h 04m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 55m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 9h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 10h 04m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 10h 19m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 1h 42m Chicago ORD 14:55 → IAD 17:52UA 587 7h 52m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 41m San Francisco SFO 08:42 → IAD 16:58UA 599 8h 43m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 12:49 → IAD 21:18UA 755 11h 18m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON