Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 780 PDX 00:08 → IAH 05:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 1927 PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 780 United Flight history →	PDX 00:08	IAH 05:55	6%	2%	0.6%	76%
UA 462 United Flight history →	PDX 07:13	IAH 13:30	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 1420 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:05	IAH 13:35	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 1927 United Flight history →	PDX 13:02	IAH 19:21	13%	4%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:36 → IAH 13:46DL 1532	6h 01m	98%	88%
American Details →	PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:52 → IAH 13:08AA 1397	6h 01m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON