Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 451 PDX 07:05 → JFK 15:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 18 PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 451 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:05	JFK 15:46	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2139 Delta Flight history →	PDX 12:36	JFK 20:56	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 18 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	JFK 19:23	15%	3%	0.7%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 06m	97%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	8h 00m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	7h 17m	97%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON