Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 335 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day WN 335 PDX 05:48 → LAS 08:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 801 PDX 13:38 → LAS 15:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 335 Southwest	PDX 05:48	LAS 08:12	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 531 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:50	LAS 20:12	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 1403 Alaska	PDX 09:00	LAS 11:07	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1276 Southwest	PDX 16:21	LAS 18:20	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 778 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:46	LAS 17:06	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 757 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAS 13:11	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 801 Southwest	PDX 13:38	LAS 15:39	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON