Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 300 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	MCO 15:49	13%	3%	2.3%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	10h 07m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 46m	100%	88%
United Details →	PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:37UA 780	2h 53m Houston	IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310	9h 51m	99%	87%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 39m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	10h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 28m	98%	83%
United Details →	PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411	1h 24m Denver	DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259	7h 51m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	9h 21m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON