Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3012 PDX 14:31 → MFR 15:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2289 PDX 21:33 → MFR 22:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3012 SkyWest	PDX 14:31	MFR 15:41	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:48	MFR 16:05	10%	4%	0.7%	85%
QX 2512 Horizon	PDX 11:08	MFR 12:23	11%	3%	1.6%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	PDX 10:49	MFR 12:07	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
QX 2289 Horizon	PDX 21:33	MFR 22:48	12%	3%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON