Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2369 PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 714 PDX 11:06 → MSP 16:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2369 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:00	MSP 11:14	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 2359 Delta Flight history →	PDX 00:33	MSP 05:49	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 661 Delta	PDX 11:37	MSP 17:01	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2167 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:45	MSP 19:03	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 714 Alaska	PDX 11:06	MSP 16:28	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON