Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2612 PDX 07:48 → OAK 09:42 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1581 PDX 16:53 → OAK 18:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2612 Southwest	PDX 07:48	OAK 09:42	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3130 SkyWest	PDX 10:46	OAK 12:39	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4248 Southwest	PDX 11:44	OAK 13:30	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3267 SkyWest	PDX 20:00	OAK 21:52	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1581 Southwest	PDX 16:53	OAK 18:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2082 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:33	OAK 19:23	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON