Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day QX 2081 PDX 08:28 → ONT 10:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1704 PDX 14:59 → ONT 17:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


QX 2081 Horizon	PDX 08:28	ONT 10:59	12%	3%	1.8%	no record
AS 720 Alaska	PDX 07:18	ONT 09:36	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1704 Alaska	PDX 14:59	ONT 17:19	17%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON