Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1776 PDX 07:17 → PHL 15:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1659 PDX 08:41 → PHL 16:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1776 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:17	PHL 15:23	13%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 3090 American Flight history →	PDX 07:14	PHL 15:25	13%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 1659 American	PDX 08:41	PHL 16:57	15%	4%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 11m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	7h 11m	97%	85%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON