Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1385 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1385 PDX 07:03 → PHX 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2986 PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1385 Southwest	PDX 07:03	PHX 09:56	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 05:20	PHX 08:00	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 711 Alaska	PDX 10:38	PHX 13:17	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest	PDX 13:24	PHX 15:58	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3136 Southwest	PDX 19:04	PHX 21:38	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 15:08	PHX 17:37	18%	3%	0.6%	90%
AS 723 Alaska	PDX 17:59	PHX 20:18	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	19%	5%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON