Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3137 PDX 07:49 → SAN 10:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 667 PDX 17:46 → SAN 20:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3137 Southwest	PDX 07:49	SAN 10:10	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	15%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 721 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:35	SAN 11:47	18%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 1312 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	SAN 17:29	19%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 4332 Southwest	PDX 15:36	SAN 17:58	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 425 Alaska	PDX 15:40	SAN 18:01	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 667 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:46	SAN 20:09	20%	3%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON