Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 526 PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
AS 1374 Alaska	PDX 18:46	SFO 20:36	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5733 SkyWest	PDX 10:53	SFO 12:51	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 751 United Flight history →	PDX 12:55	SFO 14:47	11%	5%	0.6%	43%
AS 1393 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:53	SFO 19:46	12%	4%	0.7%	67%
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	12%	4%	0.6%	73%
UA 2615 United Flight history →	PDX 19:22	SFO 21:37	12%	6%	0.6%	55%
UA 1939 United	PDX 09:06	SFO 10:59	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:56	14%	5%	0.6%	35%
AS 1412 Alaska	PDX 10:33	SFO 12:15	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 526 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:19	SFO 09:16	19%	7%	0.7%	59%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON