Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AS 1318 at 11:08, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1318 Alaska	PDX 11:08	STL 16:54	14%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 09:03 → STL 10:41DL 1289	8h 08m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	5h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	3h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224	8h 41m	100%	89%
American Details →	PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:51 → STL 16:41AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	9h 34m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	10h 16m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609	7h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	9h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	7h 15m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON