Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, OO 3220 at 07:31, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3220 SkyWest	PDX 07:31	STS 09:18	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2330 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 10:45	STS 12:26	8%	0%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 17:46 → SAN 20:09AS 667	2h 08m San Diego	SAN 22:17 → STS 23:51AS 3302 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404	2h 11m Santa Ana	SNA 11:48 → STS 13:37AS 3467 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:19 → SEA 08:20AS 2420 · flown by Horizon	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	6h 15m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 15:01 → STS 16:24AS 1332	5h 39m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:46 → SAN 13:27AS 1394	3h 10m San Diego	SAN 16:37 → STS 18:23AS 2258 · flown by Horizon	7h 37m	100%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON