Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5796 PHL 20:10 → ALB 21:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5788 PHL 17:36 → ALB 18:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5796 Piedmont	PHL 20:10	ALB 21:29	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
PT 5922 Piedmont	PHL 13:16	ALB 14:39	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5904 Piedmont	PHL 08:53	ALB 10:12	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5804 Piedmont	PHL 16:17	ALB 17:26	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5788 Piedmont	PHL 17:36	ALB 18:43	14%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON