Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1269 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1269 PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1147 PHL 17:36 → ATL 19:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1269 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:15	ATL 07:19	4%	1%	0.7%	90%
YX 4725 Republic	PHL 11:03	ATL 13:31	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4755 Republic	PHL 09:08	ATL 11:27	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1795 Delta	PHL 10:26	ATL 12:34	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	PHL 14:32	ATL 16:40	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	PHL 16:08	ATL 18:32	6%	2%	0.6%	70%
DL 1180 Delta Flight history →	PHL 08:05	ATL 10:11	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1152 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:25	ATL 08:28	6%	1%	0.7%	89%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:02	ATL 14:05	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:17	ATL 19:29	8%	2%	0.6%	62%
AA 5250 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:20	ATL 17:31	9%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 443 American Flight history →	PHL 21:58	ATL 00:15	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
F9 2297 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:30	ATL 11:00	14%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 2983 American Flight history →	PHL 17:53	ATL 20:00	18%	5%	0.6%	62%
F9 1101 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:39	ATL 14:59	20%	6%	0.9%	60%
F9 1147 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:36	ATL 19:58	22%	9%	0.9%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON