tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4779 Republic PHL 08:31 AUS 11:48 5% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1314 American Flight history → PHL 17:39 AUS 20:30 15% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 8h 10m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 8h 10m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:54 → DFW 07:38AA 1751 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → AUS 10:59AA 3054 7h 05m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 1h 16m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 49m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584 3h 21m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 57m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 5h 38m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 49m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON