Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5054 PSA	PHL 10:41	BHM 12:08	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:09	BHM 21:32	15%	5%	0.7%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	4h 32m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 16:18 → BHM 17:12DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor	5h 36m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 20m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 11:28 → BHM 11:55AA 6475 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:19 → BHM 19:22DL 3044	5h 50m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON