Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 752 PHL 07:19 → BNA 08:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1280 PHL 15:47 → BNA 16:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 752 Southwest	PHL 07:19	BNA 08:21	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1861 Southwest	PHL 13:50	BNA 14:30	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2869 Southwest	PHL 18:48	BNA 19:43	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1320 American	PHL 08:25	BNA 09:33	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 804 American	PHL 13:21	BNA 14:30	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	9%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 15:47	BNA 16:46	13%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON