Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 160 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–17%.

Safest bet that day B6 160 PHL 05:54 → BOS 07:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3073 PHL 16:18 → BOS 17:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 160 JetBlue	PHL 05:54	BOS 07:21	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BOS 21:49	5%	2%	0.6%	70%
AA 834 American	PHL 06:51	BOS 08:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2743 American	PHL 06:59	BOS 08:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 13:10	BOS 14:40	6%	2%	0.6%	72%
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 10:57	BOS 12:25	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 2685 American	PHL 08:56	BOS 10:34	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 17:35	BOS 19:07	8%	2%	0.6%	67%
B6 1860 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:36	BOS 20:05	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
YX 4721 Republic	PHL 19:19	BOS 20:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:48	BOS 20:16	8%	4%	0.6%	56%
AA 2404 American	PHL 21:02	BOS 22:38	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3186 American	PHL 12:53	BOS 14:16	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHL 16:18	BOS 17:44	17%	5%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON