Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5800 PHL 11:16 → BUF 13:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5836 PHL 16:02 → BUF 17:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5800 Piedmont	PHL 11:16	BUF 13:04	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5847 Piedmont	PHL 13:11	BUF 14:45	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 08:40	BUF 10:02	13%	2%	0.8%	82%
PT 5933 Piedmont	PHL 08:51	BUF 10:15	14%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5935 Piedmont	PHL 15:36	BUF 17:10	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5795 Piedmont	PHL 20:02	BUF 21:19	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
PT 5914 Piedmont	PHL 13:25	BUF 14:38	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5836 Piedmont	PHL 16:02	BUF 17:16	15%	2%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON