Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1328 PHL 10:28 → CHS 12:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5492 PHL 09:08 → CHS 11:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1328 American	PHL 10:28	CHS 12:26	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2447 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	CHS 12:29	10%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 1193 American	PHL 21:46	CHS 23:35	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1934 American Flight history →	PHL 15:47	CHS 17:40	14%	4%	0.7%	72%
OH 5492 PSA	PHL 09:08	CHS 11:22	14%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON