Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5623 PHL 09:55 → CLE 11:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 981 PHL 22:17 → CLE 23:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5623 PSA	PHL 09:55	CLE 11:47	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5567 PSA	PHL 09:27	CLE 10:56	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
PT 6047 Piedmont	PHL 13:11	CLE 14:55	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5287 PSA	PHL 16:45	CLE 18:29	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1209 American	PHL 15:00	CLE 16:38	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 981 American	PHL 22:17	CLE 23:42	15%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON