Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4361 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 10–11%.

Safest bet that day AA 4361 PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 320 PHL 17:56 → CMH 19:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4361 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:50	CMH 23:41	4%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 2253 American	PHL 10:20	CMH 12:08	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:21	CMH 10:10	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2592 American	PHL 15:27	CMH 17:12	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5461 PSA	PHL 08:23	CMH 10:07	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5455 PSA	PHL 13:08	CMH 14:57	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 320 American	PHL 17:56	CMH 19:28	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON