tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5064 at 19:39, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 19:39 DAY 21:12 12% 7% 0.9% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 5h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 6h 59m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088 7h 10m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167 6h 34m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 19:42 → DAY 21:23AA 5435 · flown by PSA 7h 34m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:29 → CLT 12:13AA 847 3h 50m Charlotte CLT 16:03 → DAY 17:28AA 5321 · flown by PSA 6h 59m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:33 → DFW 13:09AA 3326 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:07 → DAY 17:32AA 5517 · flown by PSA 6h 59m 89% 73%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA 7h 22m 86% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON