Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4640 Republic	PHL 20:37	DCA 21:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:11	DCA 17:23	16%	6%	0.8%	97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 17:35 → BOS 19:07DL 5706 · flown by Republic	2h 41m Boston	BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	99%	92%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:03 → DCA 12:07UA 202	6h 07m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	6h 12m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	2h 12m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 18m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 13:10 → BOS 14:40DL 5805 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Boston	BOS 17:50 → DCA 19:56DL 5667 · flown by Republic	6h 46m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 08:44 → BUF 10:17AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont	1h 19m Buffalo	BUF 11:36 → DCA 13:21AA 4647 · flown by Republic	4h 37m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → DCA 12:51DL 1798	6h 26m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 08:21 → CMH 10:10AA 5640 · flown by PSA	2h 35m Columbus	CMH 12:45 → DCA 14:24AA 4700 · flown by Republic	6h 03m	100%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 17:08 → ILM 18:55AA 5816 · flown by Piedmont	48m Wilmington	ILM 19:43 → DCA 21:12AA 5133 · flown by PSA	4h 04m	67%	51%
American Details →	PHL 16:28 → AVL 18:36AA 6034 · flown by Piedmont	59m Asheville	AVL 19:35 → DCA 21:14AA 5052 · flown by PSA	4h 45m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON