Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3147 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3147 PHL 06:01 → DEN 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4335 PHL 17:34 → DEN 19:17 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3147 Southwest	PHL 06:01	DEN 07:45	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 384 Southwest	PHL 12:36	DEN 14:27	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1423 United	PHL 07:59	DEN 10:01	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	7%	2%	0.5%	79%
AA 1313 American Flight history →	PHL 08:47	DEN 11:57	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 2082 American	PHL 13:01	DEN 15:12	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	9%	3%	0.5%	60%
AA 2878 American	PHL 20:42	DEN 22:39	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4335 Southwest	PHL 17:34	DEN 19:17	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON