Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5219 PSA	PHL 19:49	DSM 21:44	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:38	DSM 12:27	11%	3%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	6h 30m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	8h 09m	100%	93%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:28 → DSM 12:00AA 2962	7h 00m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 50m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 10:55 → DFW 13:16AA 3326	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:53 → DSM 17:52AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	7h 21m	99%	88%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 08:57 → DSM 10:14UA 466	5h 14m	99%	87%
United Details →	PHL 09:30 → ORD 10:47UA 1811	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 13:44 → DSM 15:03UA 1658	6h 33m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON