Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4392 PHL 10:37 → DTW 12:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1391 PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4392 Republic	PHL 10:37	DTW 12:34	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1540 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:10	DTW 07:48	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	PHL 09:46	DTW 11:31	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:36	DTW 14:20	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	PHL 20:10	DTW 22:15	7%	2%	0.6%	74%
AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:54	DTW 23:36	7%	2%	0.8%	74%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:52	DTW 10:35	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
OH 5367 PSA	PHL 15:47	DTW 17:30	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:28	DTW 19:15	9%	2%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON