tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:05, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 49m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → ECP 19:10DL 3053 5h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 6h 33m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 32m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 20m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:52 → DFW 07:37AA 1751 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:41AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → ECP 11:37AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 37m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038 2h 30m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 7h 57m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON