Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:32, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day


YX 4608 Republic	PHL 12:08	EYW 15:46	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56AA 1252	3h 23m Miami	MIA 12:19 → EYW 13:32AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 10:49 → EYW 13:21AA 1816	7h 21m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	6h 58m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 49m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:06 → EYW 11:00DL 1281	5h 45m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON